What is happening in Indonesia's Natuna Sea?

Here is a summary of what happened between China and Indonesia in the Natuna Sea over the last three months.

At one point, it appeared that China was preparing for a stand-off in case of interference by the U.S carrier strike group to the operation of Haiyang Dizhi 10 in the South China Sea. The situation was tense!

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After Indonesia deployed Noble Clyde Boudreaux drilling rig to conduct an appraisal drilling campaign in Tuna Block in late June, China Coast Guard vessel 5202 was observed in the vicinity of the drilling site.

The satellite image showed that CCG 5202 was about three nautical miles from Clyde Boudreaux on July 3, 2021.

Ship-tracking data showed that the Indonesian Maritime Security Agency (Bakamla) deployed three patrol vessels KN Pulau Dana (323), KN Pulau Marore (322), and KN Tanjung Datu (301) to the site, one after another.

On July 18, CCG 5202 turned on the AIS signal, confirming its presence near the drilling rig.

This time it was shadowed by the Indonesian Navy (TNI-AL) warship KRI John Lie (358). Jakarta has escalated by deploying the Navy.

In mid-August, China deployed a larger vessel, CCG 5305 to replace CCG 5202. Energy Voice first reported the presence of China Coast Guard vessels on August 20.

(In fact, it was me who first reported on Twitter :) ).

On August 27, CCG 5305 was seen about two nautical miles from Clyde Boudreaux. It was closely monitored by TNI-AL’s KRI Bung Tomo (357) corvette.

On August 31, China sent survey vessel Haiyang Dizhi 10 to the area. Ship-tracking data showed that it sailed into Tuna Block and approached Clyde Boudreaux at a distance of less than ten nautical miles.

The ship, escorted by CCG 4303, then surveyed Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf.

Ship-tracking data showed that it was operating in the “overlapping” area between Indonesia’s Continental Shelf and the so-called Nine-dash line, which was rejected by the Arbitral Tribunal’s ruling in 2016.

Sources told me a People’s Liberation Army Navy’s Type 054A frigate was also observed in the area.

Then came the U.S Navy!

After entering the South China Sea on September 5, U.S. Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group was spotted operating in the southwestern part of the sea on September 9. A Type 052 or 052D destroyer was spotted shadowing the carrier strike group.

Kompas then became the first major newspaper in Indonesia to report the presence of Haiyang Dizhi 10 and the situation in Natuna Sea.

On September 10, China reinforced its Coast Guard force in the southern part of the South China Sea by deploying five vessels 2305, 3304, 5302, 2305, and 6307 to the Spratly Islands.

CCG 2305 is from Ningbo (East China Sea Subbureau), and CCG 6307 is from Qingdao (North Sea Subbureau). They were deployed to the South China Sea to reinforce the South China Sea Subbureau.

In addition, CCG 5303, 5203, 5305, 4303, 5401, 3302, and 5103 have already been in the area. CCG 3302 sailed from Scarborough Shoal back to Mischief Reef.

China’s Shandong aircraft carrier also left Sanya and sailed southward. It was spotted in the northwest of Spratly Islands on September 11.

There was a possibility that it maneuvered to avoid tropical storm Conson, but we can’t rule out that China had something else in mind.

The Coast Guard vessels did not move to avoid the Conson because if that were the case, they would sail to Guangdong or Guangxi to take shelter, not from Hainan to the Spratly Islands. They are different from the aircraft carrier, which has no alternative port in the region.

At this point, it appeared that China was preparing for a stand-off in case of interference by the U.S carrier strike group to the operation of Haiyang Dizhi 10. The situation was tense!

It’s remarkable that on September 11 and 12, the USS Carl Vinson carrier turned on its AIS signal and broadcasted its position in the Natuna Sea. Its position was about 50 nautical miles from Haiyang Dizhi 10.

It is rare for a U.S aircraft carrier to broadcast its AIS signal at sea, except straits transit or port calls. It is intentional!

Later in the day, the official Twitter of the USS Carl Vinson carrier told us it was operating near PLAN ships, aircraft, and submarines. It was another move it rarely does.

We don’t know what happened on that day. But Indonesian fishermen reported they saw 6 Chinese vessels, including Type 052D destroyer Kunming (172), in the area on September 13.

Kunming is likely the Type 052D destroyer seen following USS Carl Vinson on September 9.

On September 13, the Shandong aircraft carrier was seen back to the port in Sanya. Five Coast Guard vessels deployed to the Spratly Islands earlier also sailed back to Hainan. And the U.S Carrier Strike Group has since left the area.

But Haiyang Dizhi 10 is still in the Natuna Sea today along with CCG 4303. And CCG 5305 still sails near Clyde Boudreaux drilling rig.

(I will write about the Indonesian military’s questionable responses in another post.)