South China Sea Brief: October 18, 2021
Satellite images on October 15 showed that a Chinese destroyer appeared to follow the U.S. and Canadian warships as they entered the strait from the South China Sea.
However, upon reaching the southern mouth of the strait, it headed to the west side of the median line while the U.S. and Canadian ships kept sailing up the east side.
1. China tests hypersonic missile
From The Financial Times
Five people familiar with the test said the Chinese military launched a rocket that carried a hypersonic glide vehicle which flew through low-orbit space before cruising down towards its target.
The missile missed its target by about two-dozen miles, according to three people briefed on the intelligence. But two said the test showed that China had made astounding progress on hypersonic weapons and was far more advanced than US officials realised.
Not so many details have been revealed yet. Nonetheless, the new weapon is similar to the "Starry Sky 2" hypersonic vehicle that the China Academy of Aerospace Aerodynamics (CAAA) developed three years ago.
The Financial Times:
One Asian national security official said the Chinese military conducted the test in August. China generally announces the launch of Long March rockets — the type used to launch the hypersonic glide vehicle into orbit — but it conspicuously concealed the August launch.
The security official, and another Chinese security expert close to the People's Liberation Army, said the weapon was being developed by the China Academy of Aerospace Aerodynamics. CAAA is a research institute under China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, the main state-owned firm that makes missile systems and rockets for the country's space programme. Both sources said the hypersonic glide vehicle was launched on a Long March rocket, which is used for the space programme.
And China Daily in August 2018:
The hypersonic vehicle was first carried by a solid-propellant rocket and then separated as its own propulsion system took over. During the independent flight, the test craft maintained ultrafast speeds above Mach 5.5 for more than 400 seconds and reached Mach 6-7,344 kilometers per hour-according to a statement from the academy.
The time and location of the testing remained undisclosed. However, China announced a military exercise in the South China Sea from October 6 to 10. On the morning of August 8 (local time), China established a sizeable no-fly zone inside the area.
China conducted a similar military exercise in August 2020 and issued a NOTAM for the area southeast of Hainan. It was later revealed that China launched Dong Feng 21D and Dong Feng 26 ballistic missiles during the exercise.
The difference is that NOTAM in August 2020 included no-fly zones for debris in other areas, which usually suggests the launch of a ballistic missile, while the NOTAM in August 2021 did not.
China's Foreign Ministry on Monday denied that the country had tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile in August, saying it is "a routine spacecraft test to verify reusable technology for a spacecraft".
But, interestingly, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian admitted the space craft's supporting equipment "fall into the ocean".
2. Taiwan Strait
On October 17, the U.S. Navy confirmed that the destroyer USS Dewey and the Canadian frigate HMCS Winnipeg passed through the Taiwan Strait together on October 15 (local time).
“The Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Dewey [DDG 105] conducted a Taiwan Strait transit in cooperation with Royal Canadian Navy [RCN] Halifax-class frigate, HMCS Winnipeg, October 14-15, 2021,” the US 7th Fleet said in a statement.
“Dewey’s and Winnipeg’s transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the commitment of the United States and our allies and partners to a free and open Indo-Pacific. Cooperation like this represents the centerpiece of our approach to a secure and prosperous region,” it added.
China reacted more angrily than usual because this was the first time the U.S. and another ally had jointly conducted a passage through the Taiwan Strait.
Snr. Col. Shi pointed out that the US and Canada made provocations with odious nature and stirred up troubles in cahoots, which seriously jeopardized the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
"Taiwan is a part of China. Troops of the PLA Eastern Theater Command are staying on high alert at all times, and ready to resolutely counter all threats and provocations," he stressed.
Recently, many U.S. allies have also no longer hesitated to send warships through the Taiwan Strait. For example, the British frigate HMS Richmond or the French intelligence ship Dupuy-de-Lome also transited the strait recently.
Satellite images on October 15 showed that a Chinese destroyer appeared to follow the U.S. and Canadian warships as they entered the strait from the South China Sea.
However, upon reaching the southern mouth of the strait, it headed to the west side of the median line while the U.S. and Canadian ships kept sailing up the east side.
This finding shows that Chinese warships still tend to respect the median line as a de facto boundary, although the country's warplanes have crossed this line many times.
While monitoring the transiting warships across the line, China's movement only on its side will help reduce the risk of unexpected collisions.
Based on satellite images, I also suspect China deployed some Type 22 missile boats to shadow the warships.
3. The COSL Prospector drilling rig
Last week, China's COSL Prospector drilling rig moved southwards into Vietnam's waters. Ship tracking data and satellite images confirm that the rig surpassed the "median line" between China's Hainan Island and Vietnam outside the Gulf of Tonkin on October 13 and 14. But the rig promptly moved north then.
It is highly possible that the rig was only trying to avoid the storm Kompasu and didn't intend to conduct any operations in Vietnam's waters.
Likewise, the Hai Yang Shi You 982 rig also moved closer to the Paracel Islands before sailing north.
In the meantime, the Shandong aircraft carrier departed Sanya on October 9 and returned on October 16, possibly due to the storm.
4. Other developments
B-1B bombers flew to the South China Sea through the Bashi Channel twice on October 16 and 17.
On October 17, the U.S. Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) USS Charleston made a port call at Subic Base. It is the second time the ship has visited the Philippines in two months.
On October 15, China's survey ship Da Yang Hao left Malaysian waters and headed north. Meanwhile, Hayang Dizhi 10 is still operating in Indonesian waters.
FPDA nations mark 50 years of defence pact with aerial, naval display at Marina South - CNA
Maritime Partnership Exercise (MPX) 2021 in Bay of Bengal