South China Sea Brief: October 05, 2021
Hello,
Apologies for the intermittence of the newsletter last week! I had to move house with a tight deadline after the lockdown in Ho Chi Minh City was lifted on October 1.
Everything is ok now, so it is coming back to normal. That means two or three letters a week. Thank you for being so patient!
1. Military activities
The last several days have seen the record-breaking PRC incursions into Taiwan ADIZ since such activities were first reported.
China turns up pressure on Taiwan with record warplane dispatches - Nikkei Asia
China is ramping up aerial incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone as it seeks to reinforce the message that it is prepared to take island by force.
Taiwan's defense ministry announced on Monday that a daily record of 56 Chinese warplanes, including 12 nuclear-capable bombers, had entered the southwest corner of its ADIZ. The 149 sorties in the first four days of October is a 27% increase from the number of flights logged in the whole of September.
Like any ADIZ, Taiwan's is in international airspace. But given China's intention to eventually seize control of its democratic neighbor, the move by Beijing is being interpreted as threat by both Taipei and Washington. What is unclear is why this is happening now.
In my opinion, the surge of military aircraft may signify how much Beijing had been irritated over the recent gathering of U.S. and U.K. carrier strike groups near Taiwan. Such a response would be anticipated from the PRC every time a U.S. aircraft carrier transiting Bashi Channel.
China's Xi instructs army to increase military pressure near Taiwan - Kyoko News
Xi's instruction came at a recent meeting of the Central Military Commission, China's highest military authority, after six democratic nations including the United States and Japan carried out joint military drills near Taiwan earlier this month involving three aircraft carriers.
A large number of Chinese military planes have entered Taiwan's air defense identification zone since last Friday, in an apparent bid to counter the military exercises conducted by Britain, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand and the United States.
Xi is believed to think that the military drills in waters southwest of Okinawa, Japan's southernmost prefecture, were designed to prevent China from unifying democratic Taiwan with the mainland and from gaining the Tokyo-controlled Senkaku Islands, claimed by Beijing.
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At the Central Military Commission, Xi, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, said China should show that it is "always ready to fight," but in reality, the mainland wants to avoid a head-on confrontation with the United States, the sources said.
The PRC's incursions into Taiwan ADIZ always make the headline, but it should be reminded that Chinese military aircraft often conduct drills in other areas of the South China Sea too. The difference is that Taiwan's defense ministry reports such activities on time while the others don't.
As far as I know, Chinese military aircraft sometimes conduct drills in the west and south of the Paracel Islands. In June, it was alleged that 16 Chinese military transport aircraft had been involved in an "intrusion" near Malaysia's coastline.
Today, HMS Queen Elizabeth was spotted west of Luzon Strait while USS Carl Vinson was operating north of Scarborough Shoal after both carriers entered the South China Sea on Monday.
Over the next two weeks the UK Carrier Strike Group will navigate the South China Sea with ships and aircraft from Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and the United States, according to a new press release.
2. China survey ships
On October 4, China's survey vessel Haiyang Dizhi 10 has returned to Indonesia's EEZ and continental shelf and continued its survey after leaving for Fiery Cross Reef on September 29, likely for resupply.
At the same time, the Da Yang Hao (Great Ocean) has kept operating in Malaysia's waters, escorted by CCG 6307 and some maritime militia vessels.
Still no official response from the Indonesian government on the activities of Haiyang Dizhi 10, but a spokesman of the Indonesian Navy has stated that the Chinese survey ship did nothing wrong in Indonesian waters.
I don't think that is the assessment of the Indonesian government. In my opinion, Jakarta may want to delay its responses until the Clyde Boudreaux drilling rig completes its drilling campaign in Tuna Block.
Meanwhile, the Malaysian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has summoned Chinese ambassador Ouyang Yujing "to convey Malaysia's position and protest against the presence and activities of Chinese vessels, including a survey vessel, in Malaysia's exclusive economic zone off the coasts of Sabah and Sarawak".
The presence and activities of these vessels are inconsistent with Malaysia's Exclusive Economic Zone Act 1984, as well as the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).