South China Sea Brief: November 10, 2023
Second Thomas Shoal standoff, November 3rd Incident at Itu Aba, Transit of Shandong carrier group through Taiwan Strait...
Second Thomas Shoal standoff
The situation at Second Thomas Shoal (STS) in the South China Sea seems to be escalating as the Philippines conducts its latest RORE mission on November 10. In response, China has deployed a formidable fleet of 24 vessels, including 4 Coast Guard (CG) ships and 19 China Maritime Militia (CMM) vessels. This is a significant increase compared to October 22, 2022, when China deployed 15 ships.
The Philippines has dispatched three escort vessels: BRP Cabra, BRP Sindangan, and BRP Melchora Aquino, the latter being one of the largest vessels of the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG). Naval vessels from both sides are undoubtedly in close proximity, intensifying an already volatile situation at Second Thomas Shoal.
Footage published by the Daily Tribune shows that the Philippines is deploying the Emergency and Rescue Vessel M/L Kalayaan to supply the BRP Sierra Madre instead of two usual wooden-hulled supply boats. It was harassed by two Chinese Inflatable Boats through unsafe/unprofessional maneuvers.
According to a statement from National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea, CCG vessel 5203 deployed a water cannon against M/L Kalayaan.
CCG also issued a statement saying it “lawfully monitored the Philippine vessels and implemented control measures, making special temporary arrangements for the transportation of necessary supplies such as food by the Philippine side”.
Analysis:
The situation at Second Thomas Shoal still shows no signs of cooling down after the collisions on October 22 and is escalating closer to a critical point as both sides deploy more ships.
Images from ship tracking create a disheartening impression, with each Philippine Coast Guard ship surrounded by 4 to 5 Chinese ships. They are outnumbered and seem alone in this confrontation.
This impression is made more complex by the recent thawing relations between Australia and China, coupled with preparations for Xi Jinping's upcoming meeting with President Biden as both powers strive to mend ties.
In my view, China is also closely monitoring how the U.S. establishes its deterrents in the Middle East to map out tactics that test America's resolve to defend its allies. Perfunctory and tepid retaliatory responses are likely to be scrutinized meticulously by observers in Beijing.
In light of these developments, the United States faces the urgent need to adopt a bolder and riskier approach. Failure to do so may allow China's gray zone tactics to succeed, potentially positioning them as the winners in this high-stakes standoff.
Timeline of the Philippines' RORE missions to Second Thomas Shoal and China Coast Guard's reactions since August
August 6: Firing water cannons, accusing the Philippines supply ships of carrying construction materials.
August 22: "Temporary special arrangements for the Philippines to deliver food and other daily necessities."
September 08: Accusing the Philippines supply ships of carrying construction materials.
October 04: Accusing the Philippines supply ships of carrying construction materials.
October 22: Ramming incident, accusing the Philippines supply ships of carrying construction materials.
November 10: Firing water cannons, "temporary special arrangements for the Philippines to deliver food and other daily necessities."
Recent Articles
Surge and Swarm: How China’s Ships Control the South China Sea - The Wall Street Journal
Adm. Rommel Ong, who retired in 2019 as a vice commander of the Philippine navy, said the Philippines should act before a crisis erupts. It could build a platform or some other type of structure on the reef, Ong said. Grounding another ship is also an option, though a stopgap one like it was the first time around, he said.
Any such moves, however, would meet with stiff Chinese resistance.
“There will have to be a decision made to repair or replace Sierra Madre,” Ong said. “Otherwise we will lose control of Second Thomas Shoal.”
Chinese military ‘directed’ by Beijing to ‘be increasingly provocative”: Navy’s Paparo - Breaking Defense
China wants "to create tense, uncomfortable situations in the hope that US and partner forces will vacate the space that every force has a right to be in," Pacific Fleet Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo said.
A Chinese dispute with the Philippines is a test of America - The Economist
Itu Aba
Let's delve deeper into the events that occurred in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea on November 3. Thanks to Landsat's satellite images, we can gain insight into the situation that arises whenever US destroyers conduct freedom of navigation operations (FONOP) there.
Unlike the Paracel Islands, the situation in the Spratlys is more complex due to the presence of features controlled by different parties. First, we have China's reactions. By examining the positions and movements of the ships, it becomes evident that when the USS Dewey sailed into the Spratly Islands to conduct a FONOP in the Tizard Bank, Chinese forces were already mobilized at Subi Reef and Fiery Cross Reef. Gaven Reef, despite its proximity to Taiwan-controlled Itu Aba, is a small feature and likely doesn't have permanently stationed large vessels.
As a result, a group of Chinese militia vessels at Subi Reef was the first to react, moving south to intercept the US destroyer. Simultaneously, a warship from Fiery Cross Reef rapidly approached the area. China's reaction was likely driven by concerns that USS Dewey might conduct a FONOP at Gaven Reef or proceed further southwest to Fiery Cross Reef.
The 7th Fleet said that the US destroyer only conducted FONOP at features controlled by Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Philippines, and China did not issue a statement regarding this FONOP. This means that the USS Dewey did not venture within 12 nautical miles of Gaven Reef. The second point of interest is the close proximity between Itu Aba and Gaven Reef. Since they are located slightly over 12 nautical miles apart, there is an overlapping zone between the 12 nautical mile areas of the two features.
Taiwanese media reported the presence of a Chinese warship and militia vessels within 12 nautical miles of Itu Aba. There is a high likelihood that this group of Chinese ships entered the overlapping zone between Gaven Reef and Itu Aba, where they remained on guard while USS Dewey lingered just outside the 12 nautical mile zone of Gaven Reef. According to Taiwanese media, US and Chinese warships made contact with each other.
Ultimately, the USS Dewey did not conduct a FONOP at Gaven Reef. It remains unclear whether it had no plan to approach Gaven Reef or if they canceled their plan after the arrival of the Chinese vessels. However, the presence of Chinese vessels within the 12 nautical mile area of Taiwan-controlled Itu Aba may simply result from the natural proximity between Gaven Reef and Itu Aba. If this is the case, such situations may occur every time the US Navy conducts a FONOP at Itu Aba, and China may not have intentions to escalate tensions with Taiwan in the Spratly Islands yet.
Transit of Shandong carrier group through Taiwan Strait
This is the path of the Shandong aircraft carrier group after its return to the South China Sea on November 6, as reported by RW News.
Some interesting points:
- If the reported route is accurate, the Shandong has partially encircled the Pratas Islands.
- This marks the first time a Chinese aircraft carrier has crossed the Taiwan Strait after an exercise in the Western Pacific.
- Regrettably, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense has not disclosed the number of escort ships accompanying the Shandong. If the escort count is consistent with the usual one or two, it may indicate a return north for maintenance.
However, if the number matches that seen during exercises in the Philippine Sea, it suggests that the Shandong group is likely still engaged in training, leaving open the possibility of an unprecedented circumnavigation around Taiwan.
To all readers,
The past year has presented significant challenges and changes in my life, making it difficult for me to sustain the South China Sea Brief newsletter. I want to express my heartfelt apologies to all readers for the interruption.
I deeply regret any inconvenience caused and appreciate your understanding. I am genuinely sorry for any disappointment this may have caused. With a more settled situation now, I am eager to reconnect with you and will resume sending the newsletter. Thank you for your patience and continued support!
Sincerely,
Duan Dang