South China Sea Brief: November 02, 2021
I have learned that two Chinese H-6 bombers flew to the Spratly Islands area to conduct drills on Nov 1. It is likely a response to the presence of U.S. and Japanese warships in the area.
Life has not come to normal yet here in Ho Chi Minh City. My working routine has been poorly altered these days, and the South China Sea Brief stuttered again. Big apology!
Key takeaways today:
PLA's exercise
Warships flocking to southern part of the South China Sea
Whitsun Reef
The U.S. sub investigation
Other movements
1. China's military exercise
According to Hainan Maritime Safety Agency, from Oct 31 to Nov 3, China conducts military exercises in the area north of the Paracel Islands.
Meanwhile, there have been a lot of U.S. air activities in the northern area of the South China Sea these days.
2. U.S., Japanese, and Chinese warships
Satellite images on Oct 31 show the presence of Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group and warships from Japan's IPD 21 in the area northeast of Indonesia's Natuna Islands.
The two groups are likely conducting a military exercise, which the U.S. Navy previously announced on Oct 25.
Satellite images also show that some warships which appeared to be Chinese were closely shadowing the U.S. and Japan's formations. These ships are Type 056 corvette and Type 054A frigate.
According to my sources, many Chinese warships have kept operating in Indonesian waters in the past few days, where the Haiyang Dizhi 10 conducted a maritime survey in the last two months. The Chinese ships include the Type 054A frigate Yueyang (575) and the Type 052C destroyer Haikou (171).
Source also told me that a Chinese formation, including a Type 052D destroyer, a Type 054A frigate, a Type 056 corvette, and a Type 815 spy ship, were also spotted within Indonesian waters recently.
Satellite images and ship-tracking data suggest the USS Carl Vinson sailed into Indonesia's Natuna Sea and Malaysian waters in the past two days. These two areas were incurred by China's survey ships not so long ago. So I think it is unlikely coincident, and the USS Carl Vinson could have chosen its itinerary on purpose.
I have learned that two Chinese H-6 bombers flew to the Spratly Islands area to conduct drills on Nov 1. It is likely a response to the presence of U.S. and Japanese warships in the area.
And today, one B-1 bomber flew to the South China Sea from Diego Garcia.
3. Whitsun Reef
Sentinel satellite images on Oct 30 show that many Chinese militia vessels gathered at Whitsun Reef in the Spratly Islands again. Other ships have also been spotted in other areas of Union Banks.
Benar News also reports the development, citing Planet Labs images.
Commercial satellite imagery suggests that Chinese vessels returning in increasing numbers to Whitsun Reef, where hundreds of its ships gathered earlier this year, prompting a diplomatic dispute between Beijing and Manila.
Planet Labs images from Monday and preceding days show dozens of ships near the reef in the northern part of the Union Banks in the disputed South China Sea. Manila calls the reef Julian Felipe and said it is within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), but China and Vietnam have separate claims to it.
4. The USS Connecticut investigation
From USNI News:
Investigators have determined USS Connecticut (SSN-22) hit an uncharted seamount that grounded the nuclear attack submarine on the underwater feature in the South China Sea Navy, USNI News has learned.
The results of the command investigation into the Oct 2 incident, completed last week, have now been passed up to U.S. 7th Fleet commander Vice Adm. Karl Thomas for review and to determine if there will be any additional accountability actions over the incident, a legislative source and two defense officials that are familiar with the findings told USNI News on Monday.
"The investigation determined USS Connecticut grounded on an uncharted seamount while operating in international waters in the Indo-Pacific region," 7th Fleet spokesperson Cmdr. Hayley Sims told USNI News in a Monday afternoon statement following an earlier version of this post. "Commander, U.S. 7th Fleet will determine whether follow-on actions, including accountability, are appropriate."
I guess the U.S. Navy will send more research ships to the South China Sea to conduct seafloor topography surveys following the Connecticut incident.
5. Other movements
China Coast Guard 6305 sailed back to the vicinity of the Noble Clyde Boudreaux drilling rig, which lies within Indonesia's continental shelf, after resupplying in the Fiery Cross Reef on Oct 29.
Meanwhile, China's semi-submersible drilling rig Deepblue Explorer (Shen Lan Tan Suo) has arrived at the Natuna Sea for the drilling campaign in Block B.