South China Sea Brief: December 02, 2021
One of the reasons is that Jakarta didn't want to make the operator nervous and stop the drilling.
It hasĀ been a while since my last newsletter. Big apology!
1. Military movements
China's carriers
China's Shandong aircraft carrier returned to Sanya on November 29 after about ten days of training in the South China Sea.
On November 20, it was spotted in the waters south of the Paracel Islands.
Meanwhile, the Liaoning also came back to Qingdao after training in the Bohai Sea.
On November 29, two B1-B bombers flew through the South China Sea from Diego Garcia to Ellsworth Air Force Base.
ANNUALEX
Naval forces from Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan and the U.S. concluded a nine-day multilateral, multinational annual exercise in the Philippine Sea, November 30 - U.S Navy
Washington caps year of drills to deter China with ten-day military exercise - Reuters
The ANNUALEX drill included 35 warships and dozens of aircraft in the Philippine Sea off Japan's southern coast. The U.S. and Japanese forces were led by the nuclear-powered USS Carl Vinson carrier, which was also joined by ships from Canada, Australia, and for the first time, Germany. On Tuesday, the Vinson was being shadowed by a Chinese navy ship.
"We try to deter aggression from some nations that are showing burgeoning strength that maybe we haven't experienced before," U.S. Seventh Fleet commander Vice Admiral Karl Thomas said at a briefing aboard the carrier.
The exercise was meant to "tell those nations that maybe today is not the day," he said.
Experts Say China's Stance in Indo-Pacific Added Realism to 5-Nation Naval Drill - VOA
A Chinese submarine was spotted plowing through the Taiwan Strait on November 29.
OSINT: Chinese Navy Type-094 Jin SSBN in Taiwan Strait - Covert Shores
Chinese nuclear sub spotted in Taiwan Strait, shadowed by U.S. patrol plane - Taiwan News
On his Facebook page Monday evening, Lu Li-shih (åē¦®č©©), a former captain of Taiwan Navy corvette the Xinjiang, wrote that the P-8A had probably flown over the Taiwan Strait to monitor the movements of the Chinese submarine. However, he emphasized that he did not think the submarine was simply returning to the Bohai Shipyard for maintenance.
"Strategic nuclear submarines have been deployed in Sanya, Hainan, for so many years. Why would (the base) be incapable of providing maintenance? If it needed to go north for repairs, why did it need to float through waters with the busiest coastal traffic in China?"
Just a conspiracy theory, but if there's any accident relating to a Chinese submarine, remember the day when five U.S. reconnaissance aircraft, including aĀ WC-135WĀ Constant PhoenixĀ Nuke Sniffer,Ā operated in the South China Sea?
Russia, ASEAN hold first naval drills off Indonesian coast - Jakarta Post
2. Indonesia - China
Reuters has a scoop on the saga between China and Indonesia in the South China Sea.
EXCLUSIVE China protested Indonesian drilling, military exercises - Reuters
One letter from Chinese diplomats to Indonesia's foreign ministry clearly told Indonesia to halt drilling at a temporary offshore rig because it was taking place in Chinese territory, according to Muhammad Farhan, an Indonesian lawmaker on parliament's national security committee, which was briefed on the letter.
"Our reply was very firm, that we are not going to stop the drilling because it is our sovereign right," Farhan told Reuters.
Farhan said that China, in a separate letter, also protested against the predominantly land-based Garuda Shield military exercises in August, which took place during the standoff.
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Farhan told Reuters Indonesia's government played down the tension of the standoff publicly. Its leaders wanted to be "as silent as possible because, if it was leaked to any media, it would create a diplomatic incident," he said.
I wrote about the Indonesian responses in an earlier letter.
Indonesian officials appear to have kept their responses to the incursion low-profile when trying to solve the crisis through diplomatic channels. So, I expect that they can finally give some public comments after the episode ends.Why didn't Indonesia use megaphone this time?
One of the reasons is that Jakarta didn't want to make the operator nervous and stop the drilling.
Harbour strikes gas after successfully wrapping up Tuna drilling amid South China Sea spat - Energy Voice
On the incursion of China's survey vessel Haiyang Dizhi 10, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative had a great report last month.
China Targets New Indonesian, Malaysian Drilling - AMTI
The economic and security implications of Chinaās activities in the South China Sea - IISS
Labs image from September 25 caught the USSĀ Ronald Reagan,Ā en route from Singapore to the PhilippinesĀ with the guided-missile cruiser USSĀ Shiloh, passing just 7 nautical miles from the rig. The passthrough recallsĀ U.S. presence operations by the amphibious assault ship USSāAmericaāand littoral combat ship USSāGabrielle GiffordsĀ near another standoff between China and Malaysia in 2020, but this is the first observed instance of a U.S. aircraft carrier operating in such proximity to an ongoing standoff.
According to my records, the USS Carl Vinson was also deployed to the area two times. Besides, the UK Carrier Strike Group was spotted operating near the Chinese vessel.
Did their presence have any impact? I think so.
I have learned that Jakarta did protest the presence of the vessel. It left the area after China had been warned that the continuation of its presence would invite third-party navies.
Duan