Analyzing the November 3rd Incident at Itu Aba in the Spratly Islands
Itu Aba
Let's delve deeper into the events that occurred in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea on November 3. Thanks to Landsat's satellite images, we can gain insight into the situation that arises whenever US destroyers conduct freedom of navigation operations (FONOP) there.
Unlike the Paracel Islands, the situation in the Spratlys is more complex due to the presence of features controlled by different parties. First, we have China's reactions. By examining the positions and movements of the ships, it becomes evident that when the USS Dewey sailed into the Spratly Islands to conduct a FONOP in the Tizard Bank, Chinese forces were already mobilized at Subi Reef and Fiery Cross Reef. Gaven Reef, despite its proximity to Taiwan-controlled Itu Aba, is a small feature and likely doesn't have permanently stationed large vessels.
As a result, a group of Chinese militia vessels at Subi Reef was the first to react, moving south to intercept the US destroyer. Simultaneously, a warship from Fiery Cross Reef rapidly approached the area. China's reaction was likely driven by concerns that USS Dewey might conduct a FONOP at Gaven Reef or proceed further southwest to Fiery Cross Reef.
The 7th Fleet said that the US destroyer only conducted FONOP at features controlled by Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Philippines, and China did not issue a statement regarding this FONOP. This means that the USS Dewey did not venture within 12 nautical miles of Gaven Reef. The second point of interest is the close proximity between Itu Aba and Gaven Reef. Since they are located slightly over 12 nautical miles apart, there is an overlapping zone between the 12 nautical mile areas of the two features.
Taiwanese media reported the presence of a Chinese warship and militia vessels within 12 nautical miles of Itu Aba. There is a high likelihood that this group of Chinese ships entered the overlapping zone between Gaven Reef and Itu Aba, where they remained on guard while USS Dewey lingered just outside the 12 nautical mile zone of Gaven Reef. According to Taiwanese media, US and Chinese warships made contact with each other.
Ultimately, the USS Dewey did not conduct a FONOP at Gaven Reef. It remains unclear whether it had no plan to approach Gaven Reef or if they canceled their plan after the arrival of the Chinese vessels. However, the presence of Chinese vessels within the 12 nautical mile area of Taiwan-controlled Itu Aba may simply result from the natural proximity between Gaven Reef and Itu Aba. If this is the case, such situations may occur every time the US Navy conducts a FONOP at Itu Aba, and China may not have intentions to escalate tensions with Taiwan in the Spratly Islands yet.
Transit of Shandong carrier group through Taiwan Strait
This is the path of the Shandong aircraft carrier group after its return to the South China Sea on November 6, as reported by RW News.
Some interesting points:
- If the reported route is accurate, the Shandong has partially encircled the Pratas Islands.
- This marks the first time a Chinese aircraft carrier has crossed the Taiwan Strait after an exercise in the Western Pacific.
- Regrettably, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense has not disclosed the number of escort ships accompanying the Shandong. If the escort count is consistent with the usual one or two, it may indicate a return north for maintenance.
However, if the number matches that seen during exercises in the Philippine Sea, it suggests that the Shandong group is likely still engaged in training, leaving open the possibility of an unprecedented circumnavigation around Taiwan.
Duan,